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September 29, 2004



"That was the closest I've ever seen to an official North American earthquake prediction..."

Hmm... I went to high school in central Illinois and there was a *very* specific prediction of an earthquake along the New Madrid fault on December 3, 1990. Yes, I even remember the day of the prediction. Everyone was crazy over it, and earthquake insurance was selling like hotcakes.

Then again, I just located a USGS site on that, and I guess it was only the public that took it seriously, not the seismologists... http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/pANDs/12b.html

Andrew Frederiksen

Hmm, yeah. People make predictions all the time, but they're usually fringey at best (and based on astrology at worst). The Parkfield case was a forecast based on an unusually well-defined recurrance interval, and so was better founded than most -- it just didn't pan out.

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